'Brexit' In West Africa

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have decided to leave West Africa's economic and political group, which goes against years of working together in the region. This choice may affect millions of people and could strengthen the ties between these three countries and Russia.

The process of withdrawing from the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) might take some time. If they go through with it, it is expected to interrupt trade and services in the region, valued at almost $150 billion annually. Additionally, it brings up concerns for the nationals of these three nations who live in neighboring countries due to the bloc's policy of allowing visa-free travel and the right to work.

Ivory Coast is home to over 5 million people from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Niger, sharing a 1,500 km border with Nigeria, conducts 80% of its trade with its wealthier neighbor. Ghana, Togo, and Benin also have a significant diaspora from Niger. This potential departure could create significant economic and political challenges for these three countries.

Several analysts and African diplomats believe that the trio's decision regarding ECOWAS reflects the ongoing unrest in the region, where military forces have struggled to control Islamist militants since taking control in various countries.

Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its influence, especially since the trio accuses ECOWAS of abandoning its core values and falling under foreign influence. The three countries claim that ECOWAS provided little assistance against Islamic insurgencies, resulting in thousands of deaths and displacements of over 2 million people.

ECOWAS responded to the recent coups in the region with sanctions, which the military governments considered "illegal and inhumane." The bloc also threatened to use force to restore constitutional rule in Niger but did not follow through. Nigeria, the current chair of ECOWAS, expressed disappointment in the unelected military authorities of the three countries but expressed willingness to engage in discussions.

Established in 1975, ECOWAS aims to promote economic and political cooperation in the region, which consists of former French and British colonies. Experts predict increased tariffs and restrictions on the movement of people, goods, and money if the trio follows through with their decision. This move is compared to the United Kingdom's Brexit, with concerns about the trio's economic well-being, as they contribute only 8% to the bloc's GDP.

According to ECOWAS rules, leaving the bloc takes at least a year, so immediate consequences for those living outside their home countries are not expected. However, in a worst-case scenario, there could be a significant movement of people returning to their home countries, causing challenges for the region.

Some analysts argue that ECOWAS has been too quick to punish the juntas, questioning the bloc's credibility. They suggest that ECOWAS should have been more consistent in addressing leaders who extended their rule through problematic elections or referendums. The situation also highlights the growing divide between Western-allied elected governments and military-run countries aligning with Russia and China, further complicating the region's response to security challenges.

In Mali's capital, Bamako, opinions on the departure vary. Some see it as a necessary decision, while others worry about the consequences, particularly in terms of survival and access to the sea. Overall, the departure from ECOWAS is expected to have severe consequences for addressing security challenges in the region, according to experts.