Lula Vows Retaliation as Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Brazilian Goods Amid Bolsonaro Trial Dispute

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has warned that his country will impose reciprocal tariffs on the United States if former U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with his threat to hike import taxes on Brazilian goods to 50% beginning August 1.

The warning came in response to Trump’s letter earlier this week, in which he accused Brazil of unfairly prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently on trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro lost that contest to Lula and faces charges of inciting a coup attempt.

Calling the legal proceedings against Bolsonaro a "witch hunt," Trump described the former Brazilian leader as "a highly respected figure throughout the world" and demanded that Brazil immediately end the trial. He compared Bolsonaro’s legal troubles to his own ongoing legal challenges in the United States.

Lula, in a pointed response posted on X, emphasized Brazil’s independence and rejected external interference. “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions and will not accept any tutelage,” he said. He added that any unilateral tariff hike by Washington would be met with equivalent retaliatory measures on U.S. imports.

Trump’s tariff threat would raise duties from 10% to a steep 50%, a move that could significantly impact Brazil, whose economy relies heavily on trade with the United States—its second-largest trading partner after China.

However, Lula also challenged Trump’s claim that the U.S. runs a trade deficit with Brazil, calling the statement "inaccurate." According to official U.S. government data, the U.S. posted a goods trade surplus of $7.4 billion with Brazil in 2024.

Key American exports to Brazil include mineral fuels, aircraft, and machinery, while Brazil sends petroleum, iron, and coffee to the U.S. The trade relationship is critical to both economies, and analysts warn that a tariff war could have far-reaching consequences.

In addition to Brazil, Trump sent similar warnings to 21 other nations—including Japan, South Korea, and Sri Lanka—indicating that tariff increases were under consideration. However, only the letter to Brazil ventured beyond trade disputes to touch on political and judicial matters.

Trump also criticized Brazil over alleged censorship, accusing its courts of issuing secret orders to suppress U.S. social media platforms. His own company, Trump Media—parent of the Truth Social platform—is currently challenging Brazilian court rulings that have restricted online content.

Lula dismissed the censorship accusations and defended Brazil’s legal actions, citing the country’s stance against harmful digital content. “Brazilian society rejects hateful content, racism, child pornography, scams, fraud, and speeches against human rights and democratic freedom,” he stated.

Political analysts suggest that Trump’s overt political interference could backfire. Rafael Cortez, of the Brazilian consultancy Tendências Consultoria, said that Trump’s comments may actually boost Lula’s domestic popularity. “Those confronting Trump often benefit at home,” he noted, referencing past elections in Mexico, Canada, and Australia.

Creomar de Souza of Dharma Politics echoed the sentiment, suggesting that Lula’s administration could "score a goal" if it responds in a unified and strategic manner to the escalating trade and diplomatic tensions.

As Brazil braces for potential economic fallout, the conflict signals deeper geopolitical friction over trade, democracy, and digital sovereignty between the two Western Hemisphere powers.